The Groove 240 - Read the Room, Not the Headlines
Welcome to the 240th issue of The Groove.
I am Maria Brito, an art advisor, curator, and author based in New York City.
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READ THE ROOM, NOT THE HEADLINES
The Armory Show in 2024 with a giant soft sculpture by Joana Vasconcelos presented by Baró Galeria.
If you’re waiting for the market to “feel safe,” you’ll miss the deals happening this week and throughout the season.
New York is about to light up: Armory (now under Frieze), Independent 20th Century, WSA’s debut, plus a blizzard of openings.
In one city, in one week, you can see a $5,000 discovery two aisles from a mid–six-figure museum-level work. Headlines say “caution.” Floors say “buying.” Your job is to hear the floor.
The Market Bends, It Doesn’t Break
Every correction feels like the end. It never is.
During the 2008 meltdown, Damien Hirst’s self-orchestrated two-day Sotheby’s sale still totaled roughly £111 million, the exact day Lehman Brothers collapsed. Translation: great works and confident buyers don’t evaporate; the mix just changes. After every wobble, the serious pieces placed with conviction become the spine of future collections.
Why? Because art isn’t a quarterly earnings play. It is a slow, real, tangible thing that lives on walls and in museums. When equities zig, truly important artworks often just zag. Then they get absorbed by collectors who were patient while everyone else was refreshing headlines.
So use September for what it is: a refreshed start. You’re seeing the whole ecosystem at once: historical anchors at Independent 20th Century, fresh ideas at WSA, and Armory’s full spectrum. A calmer tape rewards decisive taste. If you’ve done your homework, this is advantage-you.
Buy Hard Assets Like a Grown-Up and Vet Like a Pro
Art is a hard asset. You live with it. It doesn’t ping red because a CEO behaved crazy. Yes, prices move up and down. That’s fine. The edge goes to collectors who think in years, not news cycles. If you treat art like a stock, you’ll buy at highs, panic at lows, and miss the point.
Patience doesn’t mean passivity; it means standards. For emerging artists, ask questions that may predict staying power. That said, be at peace regardless, knowing that you are taking a bet on a new talent while supporting their careers.
• Where do they live/work? (Community matters!)
• Training (school or mentorships), and with whom?
• Track record: solos, serious group shows, publications, biennials?
• Curatorial heat: which curators have put their name behind the work?
• Institutional signals: any museum acquisitions or loans?
• Supply discipline: how much is being released, and how often?
And price sanity matters. A painter who graduated in May cannot be priced like someone seven years into solo shows with institutional traction. If the CV doesn’t match the number, it’s not “discovery” - it’s hype and FOMO. Pay up for the right reasons, not because the buzz is loud.
Negotiation Is Back (Ask Better, Not Lower)
The upper end has cooled just enough to make real dialogue possible again. Don’t lowball. Learn. Ask for comparables from the same period. Ask about exhibition history, publications, condition. Ask how frequently works of this caliber surface, and who has been acquiring (private vs. institutional). Ask about terms that build relationships: staged payments, a promised loan to a museum show, first look on the next body of work.
Good dealers want smart placements. A slightly adjusted price to the right collector beats a trophy gathering dust. Your leverage isn’t rudeness; it’s clarity. Come with a thesis (“this fills the 1970s gap in my abstraction arc”), demonstrate you know what you are talking about or work with an advisor who does, and you’ll often get the access you wouldn’t have in a frothy year.
And mix your moves. The best day at the fairs might be a $7,500 drawing that tightens your collection’s story and a mid–six-figure canvas that future-proofs it. One builds edge; the other builds gravity. That blend is how collections get interesting and stay strong through tumultuous cycles.
Plan for the Upcoming Season
Ignore the drama. Read the room. The upcoming season, which starts this week and culminates in December with Art Basel Miami Beach, isn’t about playing it safe; it’s about playing it smart.
Buy real things with real logic in a market that rewards patience, questions, and conviction.